Just released: A peer reviewed Climate Science ResearchReport has proven that it is all but certain that EPA’s basicclaim that CO2 is a pollutant is totally false.
Press Release: New Research Report Confirms invalidation of the EPA’s Endangerment Finding
Stated simply, our new research findings building on the previous work, totally debunks EPA’s claim that CO2 is a pollutant that must therefore be regulated. It does so by very clearly demonstrating the “Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) “ data, quoted all the time as setting new surface temperature records, have been purposefully adjusted in a manner such that they are now basically meaningless numbers. Continued reliance on this manipulated GAST data is supporting CO2 regulatory actions that very negatively impact the poor not only in the U.S., but worldwide. There is no scientific basis for this widespread regulation.
On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding Abridged Research Report June 2017
Just released: A peer reviewed Climate Science Research Report has proven that it is all but certain that EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant is totally false. All research was done pro bono.
The objective of this research was to test the hypothesis that Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data are sufficiently credible estimates of global average temperatures such that they can be relied upon for climate modeling and policy analysis purposes. The relevance of this research is that the validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding requires GAST data to be a valid representation of reality.
In this research report past changes in the previously reported historical data are quantified. It was found that each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history. And, it was nearly always accomplished by each entity systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern. This was true for all three entities providing GAST data measurement, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU.
As a result, this research sought to validate the current estimates of GAST using the best available relevant data. The conclusive findings were that the three GAST data sets are not a valid
representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments which removed their cyclical temperature patterns are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S.and other temperature data.
Thus, despite current claims of record setting warming, it is impossible to conclude from the NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever.
Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings. This means that EPA’s 2009 claim that CO2 is a pollutant has been decisively invalidated by this research.
The press release and research report was covered in the Daily Caller today here. In the story Michael Bastasch writes:
Sam Kazman, an attorney with the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), said the study added an “important new piece of evidence to this debate” over whether to reopen the endangerment finding. CEI petitioned EPA to reopen the endangerment finding in February.
“I think this adds a very strong new element to it,” Kazman told TheDCNF. “It’s enough reason to open things formally and open public comment on the charges we make.”
Since President Donald Trump ordered EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to review the Clean Power Plan, there’s been speculation the administration would reopen the endangerment finding to new scrutiny.
NCDC Climate Director Tom Karl whose paper in 1988 defined the UHI adjustment for the first version of USHCN wrote with Kukla and Gavin in a 1986 paper on Urban Warming:
“… the urban growth inhomogeneity is serious and must be taken into account when assessing the reliability of temperature records.” Inexplicably, the UHI adjustment Karl argued for was removed in USHCNv2. Many of us believe the global warming depicted is largely urban warming as urban heat is blended into the more representative rural station data through “homogenization”.
Recall this was the third Research Report in the Series – the first two research efforts (see link here) set out to test for the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding. Both dealt carefully and properly with econometric simultaneous equation parameter estimation issues in the two separate structural analyses that were carried out. And, both efforts involved the same three authors. Each analyzed the same Tropical, Contiguous U.S. and Global Temperature data sets.
“The objective of this research was to determine whether or not a straightforward application of the “proper mathematical methods” would support EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant. Stated simply, their claim is that GAST is primarily a function of four explanatory variables: Atmospheric CO2 Levels (CO2), Solar Activity (SA), Volcanic Activity (VA), and a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.)” This research failed to find that the steadily rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 14 temperature data sets that were analyzed. The tropospheric and surface temperature data measurements that were analyzed were taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if regardless of data source, the analysis results are the same, the analysis findings should be considered highly credible.
The bottom line is the failure of the real world data to support the EPA’s 3 lines of evidence in the Endangerment Finding invalidates it and all regulations which are imposed based on it.
Here is the actual global data that gets incorporated into the models that are run 4 times daily. There are no adjustments. The data is based on 6 hourly forecasts adjusted for new observations. We are coming off the El Nino warm period.
See how since 2005, warm spikes have occurred with El Ninos and dips with La Ninas.