a rigorous impending review … BoM data changes are suspect

Another super-computer fail from BoM, uncovered by Warwick Hughes: Another useless Bureau of Meteorology Outlook – Australian summer rain shows BoM has not got a clue persevering with failed models

Many more examples are found at his site. Fortunately, or not (for BoM), in inquiry is about to begin:

[…] Current criticism of BoM over the temperature series is obviously unfamiliar territory for what remains one of Australia’s most highly regarded public institutions.

This criticism is by no means an existential threat to BoM but a rigorous and transparent review of ACORN-SAT data, methodology and communication is clearly needed, and long overdue.

Current criticism of BoM over the temperature series is obviously unfamiliar territory for what remains one of Australia’s most highly regarded public institutions.

This criticism is by no means an existential threat to BoM but a rigorous and transparent review of ACORN-SAT data, methodology and communication is clearly needed, and long overdue.

SOURCE

Check out Ken Stewart’s excellent submission, which is comprehensive and not what the BoM want anyone to see.

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Mad As … a new Black Comedy film

Fun to be had, now, where is that spare 10G’s to star in this film … sponsor anyone? It goes to David Batty for his new film project. Well I may be able to rustle up 3G’s. A weekend with these guys would be Maaad. Please share : http://www.pozible.com/project/190802

Black As by David Batty
pozible.com

BLACK AS – EPISODE 1

This series is not completed and needs to raise money to make it happen. They have an exciting way for you to donate.

$10 = Thankyou!

A very heartfelt thank you for helping to bring the boys project to life!
$20 = WATCH NEXT 2 EPISODES

Love what your saw on the first episode? Then be the first in the world to watch all three episodes of Black As via digital download.
$50 = BLACK AS – BLOOPER REEL

Black As Bloopers will have you in stitches. Off camera the guys are just Funny As. They see the world in a unique Black As way. You will love this 25 minutes of Black As, behind the scenes (and also get the three pilot webisodes).
$100 = SURPRISE REBEL FILM’S DVD

We will send you a signed copy of an iconic Rebel Films production, as well as the 3 Black As webisodes for download.

$200 = NAME SCRATCHED IN CAR

The boys will scratch your name on the car being used in the show! A photo graphic record of all names on the car will be kept on our website. The original Bush Mechanics Holden is now a museum piece and has a place in history. Your name will be on the BlackAsmobile as it gains a cult following. And we will send you the 3 Black As webisodes for download

$400 = BLACK AS HANDCRAFTED RIB

These Buffalo ribs were found on he Arafura plains by the Black As boys and hand painted by two famous artists from Ramingining – Bobby Bunungurr (see: http://www.aaia.com.au/artists/adisplay.php?artist=bobby) and Roy Burnyila (see: http://www.nomadart.com.au/?p=8209)
$1,000 = BLACK AS, BUFFALO HORN

These Buffalo horns were found on he Arafura plains by the Black As boys and hand painted by two famous artists from Ramingining – Bobby Bunungurr (see: http://www.aaia.com.au/artists/adisplay.php?artist=bobby) and Roy Burnyila (see: http://www.nomadart.com.au/?p=8209)
$3,000 = A WEEKEND WITH BLACK AS

A weekend bush adventure hosted by the Black As boys, in East Arnhem. We guarantee you will never experience anything like this. Learn how to live off the land, fix cars on the run and dodge crocodiles. You have to sort out: flights (Air Tiwi flys Darwin to Ramingining for $550), insurance, permits (easy via the NLC website) and sign a waiver, and Black As will supply the local knowledge, laughs and the remote outback adventure weekend of a lifetime.
$10,000 = STAR IN BLACK AS!

You will star in an episode of Black As. Get to Ramingining during filming and we will film you with the boys who will show you everything they know about being Black As.

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data fudging? … scrutinizing data to begin

Crunching (an inquiry into) numbers, BoM homogenization to come under independent scrutiny. Greenie Watch posted this (pay-walled) from The Australian:

Upping the heat on climate number-crunchers

(John Ray) This major attack on Warmist crooks in high places appeared in Australia’s national daily.  I think Americans will have little difficulty in mentally converting the cricket metaphor into a baseball metaphor

CRICKET legend Donald Bradman is a useful metaphor for the escalating global row over claims the world’s leading climate agencies have been messing with the weather.

Imagine, for instance, if some bureau of sport were to revise the Don’s batting average in Test cricket down from 99.94 to 75 after adjusting for anomalies and deleting innings of 200 runs or more.

Continue reading

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weekend funny … ABC invokes religion

The ABC pumps up religious opinion on climate change and energy. The irony, it hasn’t hit them yet:


The coal industry needs to stop telling the developing world what to do and start listening to what it wants.
abc.net.au

 

Tom Harley That’s all we need, religion in an energy debate. We have enough of that in the climate change debate!

MOMENTUM SEEMS TO be building for a global deal at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris this December. With this sense of optimism comes a keen awareness that the use of fossil fuels must be phased out globally as rapidly as possible. Indeed, the idea that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to zero by 2050 is gaining wider acceptance.

Early movers are already shaking things up. Universities, pension funds, churches, banks, and even the heirs to the Rockefeller oil fortune are pulling their money out of fossil-fuel assets or are considering the possibility of divestment — an option made increasingly attractive by the swiftly falling cost of renewable energy. […]

A bit optimistic, I would say. Falling cost of renewable energy? They haven’t yet heard about Germany’s rapid return to coal. Bloomberg: Germany to Add Most Coal-Fired Plants in Two Decades, …

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CO2 is good for our health … and the planet

Yet another CO2 causes ‘Greening’ article arrives, adding to hundreds more already out there:

Studies: CO2 Emissions Are Greening The Planet

Daily Caller News Foundation | Michael Bastasch
Planning Apes.JPEG

‘Global Greening is the most important ecological trend on Earth today’

Even our health is improved, contrary to the alarmist claims: The Many Impacts of Global Warming on Human Health (24 February 2015)


A new literature review confirms that a decline in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) leads to decreases in both human morbidity and mortality, which findings almost make one want to wish for a little CO2-induced global warming because it historically has led to reductions in the DTR…

Cooler days and warmer nights. What’s not to like in the plant growing industry.

Read both pieces.

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frakking magic … Green dismay

Frakking away, the Green’s dismay. They will still find fault, probably the colour of the oil or something, just because. Bishop Hill:

Magic wands and the greens

I think it was Bryony Worthington who once asked a bunch of environmentalists what they would happen if a fairy could wave a magic wand and do away with the warming effects of carbon dioxide. Would they be happy for mankind to continue to burn fossil fuels?

The answer of course was “no”.

Interesting then to read the news that Roman Abramovich has made a major investment in a company that claims to be able to fracture rocks without any fluids at all.

Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich has invested $15 million in Houston-based Propell Technologies Group, Inc. (OTC:PROP) and its new fracking technology from wholly owned subsidiary Novas Energy. Significantly, this new enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology enables ‘clean’ hydraulic micro/nano fracturing of oil reservoirs—that is, without water, without polluting chemicals and without earthquakes.

According to Propell, the Plasma Pulse patented downhole tool creates a controlled plasma arc within a vertical well, generating a tremendous amount of heat for a fraction of a second. The subsequent high-speed hydraulic impulse wave emitted is strong enough to remove any clogged sedimentation from the perforation zone without damaging steel. The series of impulse waves/vibrations also penetrate deep into the reservoir causing nano fractures in the matrix which increase reservoir permeability for up to a year per treatment.

It sounds like the shale gas industry’s very own magic wand. You can almost sense the dismay among the green fraternity.

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climate change may shorten winter … or may not

Assumptions and projections are not science but nonsense. This is another column at SNWA where the writer assumes ‘climate change’. Not global warming or global cooling, but climate change. The lower rainfall, dear author, is a result of mass clearing of forest and bush for cropping and grazing during the ’60s and ’70s. Didn’t the models tell you?

Banksias differ on resilience to climate change

 

The inflorescence of B.coccinea injects some colour into the landscape. The inflorescence of B.coccinea injects some colour into the landscape. Dr Anne Cochrane

RESEARCH into the germination requirements of four Banksia species (Proteaceae) endemic to the South West Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR) has found certain species may be more vulnerable to climate change than others.

Australian National University scientist Anne Cochrane recently led the project, investigating drought tolerance during seed germination in B.baxteri, B.coccinea, B.media and B.quercifolia.

Seeds from the four Banksia species were collected from high-, medium- and low-rainfall natural populations in the SWAFR and subjected to a range of temperatures and moisture conditions.

They found optimal germination was a delicate balance between temperature and moisture levels for the four species, with some populations of species responding to certain conditions better than others.

“Obviously no moisture stress is optimal for germination,” Dr Cochrane says.

They determined B.coccinea seeds were most vulnerable to drought stress with B.media seeds the least vulnerable.

The SWAFR has suffered a 20 per cent reduction in annual rainfall since the 1970s and predictions of increasing temperatures and further rainfall declines mean water availability is a major factor limiting germination in SWAFR ecosystems.

“Once seedlings emerge they need to get their roots down to water as soon as possible,” Dr Cochrane says.

“If the soil dries out before seedlings have established…they can die.”

Banksia species like B.coccinea have structural and functional value in many SWAFR ecosystems. Credit: Dr Anne Cochrane

 

There was no correlation between natural population rainfall levels and drought tolerance however, they found steep declines in germination in all species when the moisture potential was less than -0.25MPa, with 0MPa being saturated and -1.5MPa being wilting point

All four species had optimal germination at 15°C, reflecting the cool, wet winters of the SWAFR’s Mediterranean climate

Increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall may shorten this winter period however and limit the window of opportunity for germination as well as increase fire frequency.

Banksia species are particularly vulnerable to these changes as they rely solely on seeds for reproduction after the parent plant is burnt.

Dr Cochrane says the four species are relatively common but current threats like Phytophthora cinnamomi (dieback) in combination with climate change have the potential to cause rapid declines in the future.

“We do our best to have conservation measures in place…but these measures are not really going to have a rapid impact on a changing climate,” she says.

“What we most need is for people’s attitudes to change and for resourcing for conservation…to increase.”

May do this, and may do that, is not science. You may be wrong, I may be right, it’s still nonsense. The climate has not changed, it’s still Mediterranean . After all, it’s just variable weather.

“… predictions of increasing temperatures and further rainfall declines” is just weather.

This article is more like a Nurseryman’s guide to planting Banksia seedlings.

Is this the ‘climate change you were talking about? Albany (BoM station 9500)
(Central Albany population 2006 – 31,575)

Pre-1900 vs recent 30 years mean temperature
1880-1899 (20 years surveyed) 59 F = 15 C
1981-2010 (30 years) Albany Airport = 15.3 C

Continue reading

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another model failure … deserts blooming

Australia’s deserts have never looked so good as the last couple of decades. Rainfall has increased, Lake Eyre has even filled several times in recent years, where it used to be once in a hundred.

Temperatures, on the other hand are mostly unchanged or with slight warming, except where BoM have made ‘adjustments’.

Which makes this article from a Fairfax ‘dead tree’ journal, ‘balderdash’:

Global warming: Australian deserts to expand as tropical circulation changes

John Ray at Greenie Watch adds: “Just modelling, which has so far always been wrong.”

Australia’s deserts will expand southward and dry periods will lengthen as global warming alters key tropical circulations, according to new research by US scientists.

The researchers studied how the Hadley Circulation – the movement of warm air and moisture away from the tropics – will be affected if carbon-dioxide emissions continue to rise at the rate of 1 per cent per year.

They found evidence* of a so-called “deep-tropics squeeze”, in which regions closest to the equator will experience increased convection as air rises faster.

Conversely, the drier sub-tropical regions characterised by descending air and resulting high-pressure systems will expand, according to the research published Tuesday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“Our results provide a physical basis for inferring that greenhouse warming is likey to contribute to the observed prolonged droughts worldwide in recent decades,” the paper said.

Existing dry zones in Africa-Eurasia, south-west North America and much of Australia will face increased risk of drought, said William K.M. Lau, of the University of Maryland’s Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Centre, and co-author of the paper.

“As inferred from the model projections, the global warming effect on expansion of deserts is likely to be already going on,” Dr Lau told Fairfax Media.

The paper found that while some components of the Hadley Circulation will strengthen – resulting in increased rainfall in the deep tropics – ther elements will weaken. These findings will aid the understanding of the overall changes under way, he said.

“Detection of changes in the Hadley Circulation has been attempted by many previous authors, with no clear results whether it has strengthened, weakened or [had] no change,” he said.

Steve Turton, a climatologist at James Cook University, said the PNAS paper adds to other research indicating the tropical belt is expanding, such as signs that the location of the maximum intensity of cyclone is shifting poleward.

An intensification of deep tropical rainfall would mean more rainfall for regions to the north of Australia, such as Indonesia, Professor Turton said.

A further expansion of the high-pressure belt, on the other hand, means more rainfall missing mainland Australia, and falling in the Southern Ocean instead. “It spells a pretty grim forecast for Australia,” he said.

Rainfall is already on the decrease in southern Australia. Important winter rains over south-western WA have reduced by about a quarter since the 1970s, adding stresses to ecosystems and raising doubts about the prospects for wheat farming in the region, Professor Turton said.

Other regions reliant on monsoonal rains, such as the Indian sub-continent, will also likely see a disruption of rainfall patterns, he said.

My work often takes me to the Great Sandy Desert, but I am having problems finding the sand amongst the flora.

That’s despite the supposed increase in temperature. Even Africa’s deserts are blooming.

DSC00740

Craig Downer, Tanami Desert

Time to flog off the failed computers and go back to the field, like Ecologist Craig Downer and I.DSC00653Utter twaddle, says Warwick Hughes about the South West rainfall: ABC Catalyst TV show warped view of SW West Australian rainfall and this post, contradicting the models too: Research in progress suggests a link between salt levels in Antarctic ice cores and rain in south-west Western Australia.

*”They found evidence …”. Models are not evidence. There is so much that is wrong here.

Posted in Climate, comedy, Environment, media, science, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

global warming is falsified, so attack the skeptic scientists …

The climate inquisition, witch hunt, call it what you will, is disgraceful, but not surprising. The ‘establishment’ is in panic mode, as Pachauri, head of the IPCC former head of the IPCC, is under investigation for sex offences.

[…] This is 21st century America. We don’t do inquisitions of heretics any more. Unbelievable that this is going on in the US.

More huffing and puffing about donations to skeptics by business

But no huffing and puffing about donations to Greenies by business?


Rep. Grijalva — who has a long history with the Communist Party, USA.

[…] Note that the NYT accusations which started this mini-witchhunt had zero in them that was new.  The same accusations were made almost word for word in 2011

Dr Steve Hayward is one of those on the hit list, and mocks the accusations against the seven scientists.

Update, more here:

Terence Corcoran: The last climate science witch hunt
It must be getting cold in the climate science greenhouse, so cold the denizens have taken to hunting witches and burning them to keep their theories of climate change alive.

 

Posted in Climate, comedy, media, science, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

inappropriate climate nonsense …

Nobel sex offenders, featured, following charges about to be ‘layed’ or is it laid, on the leader of the religion. Thank goodness he has now resigned.

 

Posted in Climate, comedy | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment
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