extraordinary summer ice … experts lie

Arctic Ice Is The Same Thickness As 75 Years Ago

Melting is on strike, the sun is approaching solar minimum, the climate refugees will move to the tropics soon I guess: Updated NASA data – no polar ice retreat

This story appeared in Forbes magazine a couple of days ago:

Updated NASA Data: Global Warming Not Causing Any Polar Ice Retreat

Gored:

No matter how many times experts lie about it, the Arctic is not melting down.

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Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014

ScreenHunter_4681 Nov. 16 22.25

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′

ScreenHunter_69 Jun. 11 21.44

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 | Sierra Club Canada

Pretty please, bring back global warming: Greenland Melt Getting Off To The Slowest Start On Record

The Greenland melt season is a month late getting started, and the coasts are still buried in snow as summer approaches.

ScreenHunter_9417 May. 20 22.36

There has been almost no melt this year, and the amount of melt is below the previous record low.

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proof the globe is not warming …

The troposphere must show a hot spot, according to the IPCC science if global warming is real. Dr David Evans left the Australian Department of Climate Change from 2010 on finding no sign of warming in the troposphere, or anywhere else for that matter. Now the latest satellite figures now out still show no warming. Drs Spencer and Christy from the University of Huntsville, Alabama, monitor one of two satellite data series, and yesterday, posted this:

New Satellite Upper Troposphere Product: Still No Tropical “Hotspot”

May 21st, 2015

One of the most vivid predictions of global warming theory is a “hotspot” in the tropical upper troposphere, where increased tropical convection responding to warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is supposed to cause enhanced warming in the upper troposphere.

The trouble is that radiosonde (weather ballons) and satellites have failed to show evidence of a hotspot forming in recent decades. Instead, upper tropospheric warming approximately the same as surface warming has been observed.

It has been also been pointed out, with some justification, that our lower tropospheric temperature product really can’t be used to find the hotspot since it peaks too low in the troposphere, and our mid-troposphere product might have too much contamination from cooling in the lower stratosphere to detect the hotspot.

A recent paper by Sherwood and Nishant in Environmental Research letters presented a reanalysis of the radiosonde data and claims to find evidence of the hotspot. I’ve looked through the paper and find the statistical black box approach they used to be unconvincing. I’ll leave it to others to examine the details of their statistical adjustments, what what the physical reasons for those adjustments might be.

Instead, I want to introduce you to a new product that is made possible by the new methods we now use in Version 6 of our UAH datasets (links at the bottom).

Since we now have a tropopause (“TP”) product, we can combine that with our lower stratosphere (“LS”) product in such a way that we pretty well isolate the tropical upper tropospheric layer that is supposed to be warming the fastest.

The following plot of the satellite weighting functions shows that a simple linear combination of the TP and LS weighting functions (from MSU3/AMSU7 and MSU4/AMSU9, respectively) gives peak weight in the layer where the strongest warming is expected to occur, approximately 7-13 km in altitude:

UT-weighting-function

If we apply the coefficients (1.4, -0.4) to the TP and LS products, the resulting “UT” (upper troposphere) product for the tropical oceans (20N-20S) produces monthly anomalies since 1979 as shown by the bright red line in the following plot (I have added offsets to all time series so their linear trend lines intersect zero at the beginning of 1979):

Upper-troposphere-vs-tropical-SST-sat-vs-CMIP5

Note that the linear warming trend in the UT product (+0.07 C/decade, bright red trend line) is less than the HadSST3 sea surface temperature trend (light green, +0.10 C/decade) for the same 20N-20S latitude band, whereas theory would suggest it should be about twice as large (+0.20 C/decade).

And what is really striking in the above plot is how strong the climate models’ average warming trend over the tropical oceans is in the upper troposphere (+0.35 C/decade, dark red), which I calculate to be about 1.89 times the models’ average surface trend (+0.19 C/decade, dark green). This ratio of 1.89 is based upon the UT weighting function applied to the model average temperature trend profile from the surface to 100 mb (16 km) altitude.

So, what we see is that the models are off by about a factor of 2 on surface warming, but maybe by a factor of 5 (!) for upper tropospheric warming.

This is all preliminary, of course, since we still must submit our Version 6 paper for publication. So, make of it what you will. […]

Read the full article for more.

Dr Evans explanation here about looking for a global warming signature:

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China trumps Obama-nero …

“Obama pisses into the wind”, an excellent heading to this item. (Dr John Ray: Does he really think any of the practical men at the coastguard are going to take  this seriously?  Coming from a Leftist politician it is more likely to make them cynical.)

[…] Coal power from China: The Wall Street Journal reports that China is investing $46 billion in new trade routes across central Asia. The lion’s share of the spending will go towards providing “electricity to energy-starved Pakistan, based mostly on building new coal-fired power plants.”

“The plans envisage adding 10,400 megawatts of electricity at a cost of $15.5 billion by 2018,” the Journal reports. “After 2018, adding a further 6,600 megawatts is outlined—at a cost of an additional $18.3 billion—that in cumulative total would double Pakistan’s current electricity output.”

Global warming is a greater problem than terrorism in the Middle East?

Global warming is not a threat to the world, but global warming ‘solutions’ are. The estimated 1.2 billion people in the world without electricity who are leading a nasty, brutish and short life, will be the ones who “will pay” for global warming solutions that prevent them from obtaining cheap and abundant carbon based energy. See: S. African activist slams UN’s ‘Green Climate Fund': ‘Government to govt aid is a reward for being better than anyone else at causing poverty’ — ‘It enriches the people who cause poverty’

Simple historical facts undermine the President’s claims about global warming and national security concerns.

More HERE

Obama-nero. Read them all.

Obama worries about er, climate change? Pissing while the world burns, when a flood is needed, Obama-nero, fiddling while the world burns: http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/219703.php

Update, Some pushback against Obama’s ridiculous climate remarks at the Coast Guard commencement

This is a follow up to our earlier story: Does the ‘leader’ of the free world really know so little about climate? Current Wisdom: Did Human-Caused Climate Change Lead to War in Syria? By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels Did human-caused climate change…

Continue reading →

Update 2, Hey, Mr President, you still in the arms-smuggling business? Then watch this: BARBARIC! ISIS Executes Teen Tied to a Pole With a Bazooka (VIDEO)

(FOX News confirmed Monday that the US ran guns from Benghazi to Syria before the attack on the US consulate on September 11, 2012.)

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creatures …

A lot of the world’s environment is still unknown:

Since 2008, the State University of New York’s International Institute for Species Exploration has recognized the weirdest and most fascinating plants and…

More weird and wonderful in this video:

Scientists just captured stunning images of deep sea creatures off the coast of Puerto Rico—some are so new to us, they don’t even have names.

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beyond media hypocrisy and principles …

Steve Kates, economics Professor, and author of textbooks on the follies of Keynes-ism, trashes our media Labor operatives with bylines. Here, at Catallaxy Files: Media principles

The great danger for Western civilisation is that the media have with honourable exceptions been captured by the left. The result is that:

1. The media never criticise parties of the left under any circumstances.

2. The media find every possible fault they can with actions taken by or statements made by representatives of the parties of the right – or even by people who can be made to appear as representatives of the parties of the right.

3. The media, as with the left in general, are beyond hypocrisy. There are no principles, only tactical advantage. The media, like the left, are totally consistent, bearing in mind they have no fixed values themselves but seek only power and wealth.

4. Deterioration in every aspect of life is allowed to take place without comment if someone on the left can be held responsible for the damage.

5. No one on the conservative side of politics is permitted to repair any damage caused by the left without intensive criticisms over the harm such repair is doing to particular individuals. Fairness is not based on any standard but only on who is making the change. If the change is made by a party of the right, it is be definition unfair and will be opposed to the fullest extent.

I agree with Bolta here: The ABC is proving it cannot be reformed, so must be sold

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cold, killing 20 times as many …

Oh, no, what will the Green blob say now:

Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13…

 They are so dishonest about globull warming. Perhaps their agenda is achieving it’s aims, to reduce the world’s growing population? No wonder Qbama says climate change is more important than stopping ISIL savages:

Cold homes, caused by factors including high energy costs and poor insulation, are known to exacerbate a number of underlying medical conditions in the…

‘Global warming’ is the Green’s most dishonest campaign ever!

Update, proof of the stupid:

Totalitarian Greens: Australian Academic Wants To Criminalize Debate On Science of Catastrophic AGW

Peter Christoff green fascist university of melbourneArticle: In an amazing demonstration of academic intolerance, the University of Melbourne’s Peter Christoff outs himself as a proud fascist easily flaunting his ‘green privilege.’

You get that when ‘Green’ loses the debate, totalitarianism.

Update,  Speaking of silly and Green:

The “expert” is basically just a silly old lady.  Is that the best the Greenies can do?  Apparently

Interviewed on the Catholic network, EWTN, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) climate expert Carol Andress is asked about the 18 year ‘pause in global warming’ by host Raymond Arroyo.

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the next ‘superfood’ … Gubinge

Our project aims have now been pushed by the local media. The basic premise behind our plant nursery in Broome is a part of the ABC item below. We are steadily working this particular species of bush fruit, locally called Gubinge, into a viable business with Savannah Enrichment Orchard plantings:

 
Bush tucker researchers say the gubinge industry is about to take off, with the fruit tipped to be one of the next big ‘superfoods’ to gain international attention.
Terminalia ferdinandiana

Terminalia ferdinandiana

Terminalia ferdinandiana2

Terminalia hadleyana

A closely related species, Terminalia hadleyana

Terminalia ferdinandiana

Indigenous plants - 0734

Fruit of the Terminalia ferdinandiana, the Gubinge

By Lucy Martin

Bush tucker researchers say the gubinge industry is about to take off, with the fruit tipped to be one of the next big ‘superfoods’ to gain international attention.

Until now the remote location and unreliable supply of the fruit, also known as the Kakadu plum, has hampered efforts to supply it.

But now the fruit’s possible use in cosmetics and medicinal products is attracting fresh attention, with strong interest at a recent Californian food expo, and rumours Chinese interests want to buy 800 tonnes.

Kim Courtenay from the Kimberley Institute said it was inevitable that the fruit, which has been labelled a superfood due its to its high vitamin C content, would take off.

“There’s no doubt it is going to be an industry,” he said.

“I guess our priority is making sure it’s an industry that does give local people the most benefits.”

“After the expo, apparently there were Chinese interests who wanted 800 tonnes. And they said, ‘Well, look, at the moment there’s only about 20 tonnes collected across the entire north of Australia’.”

Kimberley woman Pat Torres, who runs a cooperative that involves local families supplying fruit to health shops and restaurants, said her family had been picking the fruit in the bush around Broome for as long as she could remember.

“If you eat it as a fresh fruit, it has a sweet and a sour sort of taste, and if you cook it, it’s like eating pears and apples cooked up. So it’s hard to really describe what it’s like. You need to taste it, basically,” she said.

“Our families, when we’re collecting it and we’re eating it, can pick for hours because it gives you an incredible burst of energy.

“The fruit has been eaten by locals in the region for 40,000 years.

“The demand by industry far outstrips what we can offer in terms of collecting it from the wild. So we’ve had people from overseas come and check out our trees. And they say they want 50 tonnes in order to do their cosmetics or their medicine.”

Mr Courtenay believes the demand will be met by planting new trees in existing gubinge patches across northern Australia, but thinks the challenge will be transporting it across vast distances.

Anne Shanley from the Kindred Spirits Foundation, which previously helped the Northern Territory community of Wadeye to develop its gubinge industry, is developing the answer to that challenge.

“We need to have fruit coming from Aboriginal communities which have a permit to pick the fruit and it needs to be quality assured. So we need to have proper freezers and proper transport, and be able to track that everything is going well,” she said.

The Kindred Spirits Foundation wants to build gubinge hubs in larger communities across northern Australia, and a central processing plant in Darwin.

It will also create a national co-op for growers, and Ms Shanley says the next step is securing funding from government and the private sector.

In Broome, Ms Torres says Gubinge is an incredible opportunity for Aboriginal people.

But she is anxious to keep the control in Aboriginal hands.

“So much has been taken from Indigenous people, and this is one of the few things left where we can do business with it,” she said.

“We understand the tree, we understand the seasons, we know how to protect it, we know how to collect the fruit.

“This industry can provide us with honest, hard work that we can connect to.”

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termites, worms, winners …

I camped next to a termite mound in the Great Sandy Desert a few years ago, and watched a new room being finished off just after sunrise. An amazing piece of construction by tiny insects, using materials close at hand. That makes this paper more relevant:

Impending Desertification Prevented by Termites?? How Is It Done? (20 May 2015)
“Termites and other ecosystem engineers may buffer the effects of anthropogenic global change in some of the world’s most environmentally and socioeconomically sensitive regions”…

Paper Reviewed
Bonachela, J.A., Pringle, R.M., Sheffer, E., Coverdale, T.C., Guyton, J.A., Caylor, K.K., Levin, S.A. and Tarnita, C.E. 2015. Termite mounds can increase the robustness of dryland ecosystems to climatic change. Science 347: 651-655.

Introducing their intriguing study, Bonachela et al. (2015) note that in arid and semi-arid savannas and grasslands, plants facilitate neighbors by increasing water infiltration while competing for water with distant individuals, citing Rietkerk et al. (2002). And they go on to say that “reducing rainfall generates a predictable sequence of patterns with decreasing overall plant biomass,” going from over-dispersed gaps to “labyrinths, spots, and finally, barren desert,” which last transition, in their words, “is known as a ‘catastrophic shift,’ or sudden collapse to an un-vegetated state,” citing Rietkerk et al. (2004) and Scheffer et al. (2009).

In many arid ecosystems, however, they note that termite nests create substrate heterogeneity by altering soil properties and thereby “enhancing plant growth” and creating “islands of fertility (Sileshi et al., 2010)” that can serve as “refugia for plants and nuclei for re-vegetation,” which phenomena can in turn “enhance drylands’ resistance to and recovery from drought.” And “by such engineering of soil,” as they conclude in the final sentence of their paper, the six scientists state that “termites and other ecosystem engineers may buffer the effects of anthropogenic global change in some of the world’s most environmentally and socioeconomically sensitive regions.”

So what’s the take-home message of these findings? Although we had never anticipated saying it, termites might be good for something!

(Actually, I have been saying something for years, consequently beginning ‘pindanpost’, a local colloquialism for a termite mound.)

References
Rietkerk, M., Boerlijst, M.C., van Langevelde, F., HelleRisLambers, R., van de Koppel, J., Kumar, L., Prins, H.H.T. and de Roos, A.M. 2002. Self-organization of vegetation in arid ecosystems. American Naturalist 160: 524-530.

Rietkerk, M., Dekker, S.C., de Ruiter, P.C. and van de Koppel, J. Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. 2004. Science 305: 1926-1929.

Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E.H., Rietkerk, M. and Sugihara, G. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461: 53-59.

Sileshi, G.W., Arshad, M.A., Konate, S. and Nkunika, P.O.Y. 2010. Termite-induced heterogeneity in African savanna vegetation: mechanisms and patterns. Journal of Vegetation Science 21: 923-937.

Of course, termites in the desert and the tropics do the same tillage that worms elsewhere do, helping prevent adverse climate change effects:

  • New Study: How worms may stave off global warming

I pictured the termites finishing off this new room on their large ‘house’.

termites, occupying a Pindan Post

Pindan post

TermitesTermite hill showing new house extensionIn the tropics, at the beginning of the wet season, cicadas leave large deep holes so water can penetrate to tree roots easily. Of course, climate models ignore the activity of so many beneficial insects and invertebrates.

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new life after fire …

Hitting the bush this week, to see the regeneration following severe fires late last year. The Solanums are flowering profusely, showing their ability to adapt to fire. Solanums are known locally as Bush Tomatoes, yet a number of species are poisonous. Click to enlarge.

Solanum cunninghamii

Solanum cunninghamii

f

Solanum shrubs over Trianthema ground cover

b c

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reality, and data, trumps models …

Cyclone forecasting ( hurricanes too) has been way off in recent years, not complying with the real world. Warmist Met offices have been proven to be wrong time and time again. Now comes more proof:

Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Climate Models (19 May 2015)
As has been the case in most studies that have compared climate hind-casts with real-world observations, even the most up-to-date and sophisticated climate models have been found to have great difficulty simulating reality; and in the case of tropical cyclones this “standard,” as it were, continues to be upheld…

The paper:

Paper Reviewed
Roberts, M.J., Vidale, P.L., Mizielinski, M.S., Demory, M.-E., Schiemann, R., Strachan, J., Hodges, K., Bell, R. and Camp, J. 2015. Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high-resolution global climate models. Journal of Climate 28: 574-596.

Writing in the Journal of Climate, Roberts et al. (2015) say “there is an increasing need for skillful climate information at regional and local scales, particularly for considering variability and extremes,” but they note that the “current phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)-class models (Taylor et al., 2012) generally fall short of being able to provide information on these small space and time scales,” citing the study of Christensen et al. (2014). And, hence, they proceed to report the results of their latest “objective, resolution-independent feature-tracking methodology,” which they used to identify and track tropical cyclone (TC)-like features in several of the CMIP5 models that they then compared with real-world observations.

This work revealed, in the words of the nine UK researchers, that (1) “all model storms are weak compared to observations, particularly with regard to 10-m wind speed … but also applying to wind at other levels,” that (2) “the models produce typically too few TCs in the NA [North Atlantic],” as well as (3) “too many in the EP [Eastern Pacific],” that (4) “the models also generate storms in the South Atlantic [SA], where hurricanes are observed to be rare,” that (5) “increased model resolution enhances an error in the CP [Central Pacific], where the density becomes too high compared to observations,” along with (6) “tracks that are too zonal,” together with (7) “fewer storms being generated nearer to the equator in the western Pacific than seen in the observations,” that (8) “an additional model bias lies in the Gulf of Mexico/EP region, where the track density is again too high,” that (9) “in the Southern Hemisphere, the main error in distribution is found in the SWI [Southwestern Indian Ocean] basin, where the track density is strongly enhanced to the west near Madagascar,” that (10) “in the NA [North Atlantic] the season starts too early,” that (11) it “does not increase strongly through July-September, as seen in the observations,” that (12) “the EP has too many storms in the higher-resolution models,” that (13) there are “too many easterly waves propagating into this region” with (14) “a dip in September that is not seen in observations,” that (15) there is “poor simulation of the Indian monsoon,” that (16) “in general, the Southern Hemisphere has too many storms,” and that (17) the mean ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] in the models “is much smaller than observed, typically by 3-10 times.”

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the climate modeling enterprise.”

References
Christensen, J.H. et al. 2014. Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1217-1308.

Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J. and Meehl, G.A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93: 485-498.

“… much smaller than normal, by 3 to 10 times”. Yes, it’s time they gave up, and left it to real forecasters, like Bastardi and Weatherbell. ???????????????????????????????

 

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