auditing the BoM weather records…

Drs J Marohasy and J Abbott shows how BoM has it wrong, again. Many warmer years, but 1914 shows as warmer than 2016. Just history repeating: […]

Chart 1. Two temperature reconstructions for the state of Victoria (blue and red lines), and also a reconstruction for the south-east of Australia (green line) – showing annual mean maximum temperatures from 1910. The three time-series are based on very different methodologies, and show a high degree of inter-annual synchrony – but very different overall temperature trends. The different methods used to construct these three series, and the resulting statistics, are detailed in Table 1.

Chart 1. Two temperature reconstructions for the state of Victoria (blue and red lines), and also a reconstruction for the south-east of Australia (green line) – showing annual mean maximum temperatures from 1910. The three time-series are based on very different methodologies, and show a high degree of inter-annual synchrony – but very different overall temperature trends. The different methods used to construct these three series, and the resulting statistics, are detailed in Table 1.

Yesterday the Australian Bureau of Meteorology released its Annual Climate Statement, claiming 2016 to be the fourth-warmest year on record for Australia – and also an unusually wet year. Wet years are usually much cooler years, but because the overall trend in the ACORN-SAT* time series shows significant warming, even a wet year comes out as relatively hot.

Of course there is no one place in Australia where the average temperature can be measured; so the Bureau relies on a reconstruction to determine how hot 2016 was, relative to the historical record. Their method, however, is quite subjective in terms of choice of locations to include, the method used to remodel the individual temperature series before they are combined (this is refered to as homogenisation*), and the area weighting applied – with the weighting changing on a daily and monthly basis. […]

A number of non-government scientists have found a lot wrong with the way BoM adjust data, to suit an agenda which keeps them well funded. Yet Bom are still going to cut many country staff from the payroll.

* Marohasy, J. & Abbot, J. 2016. Southeast Australian Maximum Temperature Trends, 1887–2013: An Evidence-Based Reappraisal.  In: Evidence-Based Climate Science (Second Edition), Pages 83-99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-804588-6.00005-7 You can read more about this series here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/2016/12/temperatures-trends-southeast-australia-1887-part/

Site auditing for instruments and station change are a mess. Here is an excellent post by Dr Bill Johnston, on Sydney’s heated site and fake temperature records.

[…] It is astonishing that the Bureau and all the professors, failed to correct for the move in 1949; and construction of the wall, probably in 1972. Together with opening of the Cahill Expressway, and replacing the large screen with a small one, changes modified the environment and created trends that have nothing to do with the climate.

The end of the 19th century data is avoided by BoM too, because they were something different then!

About Tom Harley

Amateur ecologist and horticulturalist and CEO of Kimberley Environmental Horticulture Inc. (Tom Harley)
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