the big climate model error …

Actually, just the first of Dr David Evans error findings of the basic climate model, and the easiest to understand.

4. Error 1: Partial Derivatives

Dr David Evans,

There are three significant errors with the conventional basic climate model (which was described in the basic climate model core part 1,and  basic climate model in full part II). In this post we discuss the first error, the misapplication of the mathematical technique of partial derivatives, because it is the easiest of the three to describe.

By the way, noting that there are problems with the conventional model is hardly new even in establishment circles, but apparently itemizing them is a little unusual. For example, Sherwood et. al said in 2015 [1]: “While the forcing–feedback paradigm has always been recognized as imperfect, such discrepancies have previously been attributed to variations in “efficacy” (Hansen et al. 1984), which did not clarify their nature.”

Overview

The basic model relies heavily on partial derivatives. A partial derivative is the ratio of the changes in two variables, when everything apart from those two variables is held constant. When applied to the climate, this means everything about the climate must be held constant while we imagine how much one variable would change if the other was altered.

For example, how does changing the surface temperature affect how much heat is radiated to space (the outgoing longwave radiation, or OLR), if everything else — including humidity, clouds, gases, lapse rates, the tropopause, and absorbed sunlight — stays the same? (This particular partial derivative is the Planck sensitivity, central to the conventional model.) […]

Check out all the posts from Dr Evans.

The sun is what makes the climate change, even small changes like what happened in the last century:

douglass figure 3a

23! New! Papers!

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Pierre Gosselin’s site, NoTricksZone, he’s trumpeting the fact that there are a bunch of new papers showing a solar effect on the climate. The headline is Already 23 Papers Supporting Sun As Major Climate Factor In 2015 …Burgeoning Evidence No Longer Dismissible!, complete with exclamation mark … sigh.…

Carbon dioxide has only a minor effect on any changing climate, and more is better. Feature Documentaries
Longer (27-53 minute) feature presentations, including the popular Carbon Dioxide and the Climate Crisis and The Greening of Planet Earth series.

ScreenHunter_10514 Sep. 24 01.15

Global_Carbon_Budget_2014_v1.0_final21Sept2014.xlsx

About Tom Harley

Amateur ecologist and horticulturalist and CEO of Kimberley Environmental Horticulture Inc. (Tom Harley)
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