monsters and babies … forecasting goes all nuclear

Forecasting gets scary, monsters are coming:

First track map for MONSTER cyclone. Not looking real positive for Vanuatu. Let’s hope future maps trend a little east.

"10:30 am Sunday (Fiji): The Fiji Meteorological Service is now tracking the "monster in the making" (also know as Invest 93P and 11F). The system is currently designated as a mere Tropical Low, but notice the official forecast quickly intensifies it into a strong cyclone as it inches toward Vanuatu. Folks in New Caledonia and Fiji also need to stay alert."

10:30 am Sunday (Fiji): The Fiji Meteorological Service is now tracking the “monster in the making” (also know as Invest 93P and 11F). The system is currently d

See More

It’s monsters all the way. The next week, we will see how they do.

Saturday evening (Australia, Fiji): The global computer models are slowly coming into better agreement, but there are still important differences. Shown here are the model’s predictions for 5 days from now—and here’s what they say about each of the three threats we’re tracking:

MONSTER CYCLONE: The GFS shows it developing quickly and predicts it will directly impact Vanuatu as a large, intense cyclone within 5 days. The Euro shows much slower development, and has the cyclone

See More

"Saturday evening (Australia, Fiji): The global computer models are slowly coming into better agreement, but there are still important differences. Shown here are the model’s predictions for 5 days from now—and here’s what they say about each of the three threats we’re tracking:</p><br /><br />
<p>MONSTER CYCLONE: The GFS shows it developing quickly and predicts it will directly impact Vanuatu as a large, intense cyclone within 5 days. The Euro shows much slower development, and has the cyclone threading between Vanuatu and Fiji. Invest 93P—the disturbance that will spawn this cyclone—is currently stewing in the open SW Pacific Ocean. Once it has a more-defined circulation, we’ll have a much better idea of where it’s going. For now: Residents of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and Fiji should keep an eye on this. (Note: It is *highly* unlikely this one will come anywhere near Australia.)</p><br /><br />
<p>BABY CYCLONE: This got interesting tonight—because the GFS has given the baby a set of sharp fangs! It shows the cyclone becoming quite strong just off the Cape York Peninsula within 5 days—and then shooting E, *away* from the coast. The Euro shows something similar, with a weak, messy circulation hovering near the Queensland coast and then strengthening as it moves back out into the Coral Sea.</p><br /><br />
<p>SNEAKY CYCLONE:  This one is also getting interesting. The Euro suggests it will become a strong cyclone and threaten the Gascoyne in 8 days, before shooting down the coast of Western Australia, toward Perth! Hmmm. The GFS is less excited about this system and keeps it well offshore.</p><br /><br />
<p>Interesting week ahead!"

Hi, folks! We want to reaffirm the importance of reading the descriptive text that comes with the images we post, because that text describes what you’re looking at. As we’ve said many times, we won’t censor our discussions because some folks might misunderstand what they’re looking at and freak out. That having been said… To help address this concern, forthcoming model images will be more explicitly marked as such, with a stamp embedded into the actual image. This way, even when folks share the images out of context, viewers will understand it’s not a current weather map. Thanks for the feedback and suggestions about this– we appreciate it. smile emoticon

 

Oh, that’s OK then, monster it shall be!

Saturday morning (Australia, Fiji): Busy days ahead for the tropical S Hemisphere. This is what the latest (12Z) run of the “Euro” (ECMWF) predicts the weather map will look like one week (168 hr) from now. From right to left we have: 1) the “monster cyclone” passing between Vanuatu and Fiji; 2) the “baby cyclone” hovering near Queensland; 3) an Indian Ocean “sneaky cyclone” (named by Oz Cyclone Chasers grin emoticon ) threatening Western Australia. (There’s also a tropical storm in the Mozambique Channel, but we can’t even get into that right now.) ***Remember, this is just a computer model’s prediction of the future– it is not a current weather map.

"Saturday morning (Australia, Fiji): Busy days ahead for the tropical S Hemisphere. This is what the latest (12Z) run of the "Euro" (ECMWF) predicts the weather map will look like one week (168 hr) from now. From right to left we have: 1) the "monster cyclone" passing between Vanuatu and Fiji; 2) the "baby cyclone" hovering near Queensland; 3) an Indian Ocean "sneaky cyclone" (named by @[251725551550253:274:Oz Cyclone Chasers] :D ) threatening Western Australia. (There's also a tropical storm in the Mozambique Channel, but we can't even get into that right now.) ***Remember, this is just a computer model's prediction of the future-- it is not a current weather map."

Friday evening (QLD, Australia): The computer models are predicting two *separate* cyclones may develop, and that’s created confusion. The models predict 1) a huge “monster cyclone” way out in the S Pacific (near the island nations) and 2) a “baby cyclone” in the Coral Sea (near Queensland). To avoid confusion, this page and Oz Cyclone Chasers will refer to these systems as “monster cyclone” and “baby cyclone” until they’re named by official agencies. Now that we’ve straighte

See More

"Friday evening (QLD, Australia): The computer models are predicting two *separate* cyclones may develop, and that’s created confusion. The models predict 1) a huge “monster cyclone” way out in the S Pacific (near the island nations) and 2) a “baby cyclone” in the Coral Sea (near Queensland). To avoid confusion, this page and @[251725551550253:274:Oz Cyclone Chasers] will refer to these systems as “monster cyclone” and “baby cyclone” until they’re named by official agencies. Now that we've straightened that out, here’s what the latest (00Z) models are showing… </p><br /><br />
<p>MONSTER CYCLONE: This is currently the disturbance called “Invest 93P” by the U.S. Navy. The Euro and GFS continue to predict it will develop into a large and powerful cyclone, and that it will trek S and SE, threatening S-Pacific island nations next week. Until a cyclone actually forms, it’s tough to know which island(s) will be impacted and when—so all islanders should keep watch (without freaking out).</p><br /><br />
<p>BABY CYCLONE: Both models show a low developing in the Coral Sea and threatening the N part of the Cape York Peninsula. The GFS shows a weak (Cat 1/2) cyclone coming ashore in N QLD and then strengthening a little as it bounces back offshore. (Shown here is the GFS prediction for 6 days from now, with the system near land.) The Euro is less enthused about the baby cyclone—bringing it to the coast weaker and later (in about 8 days). (Base imagery from @[224597210892956:274:Tropical Tidbits].)"

Friday afternoon (New Caledonia): No, this is not a hypnotist’s trick– it’s how the GFS depicts Invest 93P about one week from now– as a nuclear-grade cyclone in the S Pacific. (The isobars are so closely packed it makes us dizzy looking at it.) Given that both the GFS and the Euro are being *extremely* aggressive with this system, we have some confidence that a powerful cyclone is brewing. Our friends across the S-Pacific island nations– especially New Caledonia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu, and Fiji– are advised to watch this situation closely. And there could be later impacts in New Zealand. Interesting days ahead. (Imagery from Tropical Tidbits.)

"Friday afternoon (New Caledonia): No, this is not a hypnotist's trick-- it's how the GFS depicts Invest 93P about one week from now-- as a nuclear-grade cyclone in the S Pacific. (The isobars are so closely packed it makes us dizzy looking at it.) Given that both the GFS and the Euro are being *extremely* aggressive with this system, we have some confidence that a powerful cyclone is brewing. Our friends across the S-Pacific island nations-- especially New Caledonia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu, and Fiji-- are advised to watch this situation closely. And there could be later impacts in New Zealand. Interesting days ahead. (Imagery from @[224597210892956:274:Tropical Tidbits].)"

 

And because we know y’all like sexy pictures, here’s some Grade-A computer-model porn– for chaserdudes and authentic nerds ONLY (all others, divert your eyes wink emoticon ): the 12Z Euro’s depiction of an incredibly large, intense cyclone in the open S Pacific, between Fiji and New Zealand, at Day 10. Now that’s a cyclone.

"And because we know y'all like sexy pictures, here's some Grade-A computer-model porn-- for chaserdudes and authentic nerds ONLY (all others, divert your eyes ;) ): the 12Z Euro's depiction of an incredibly large, intense cyclone in the open S Pacific, between Fiji and New Zealand, at Day 10. Now that's a cyclone."

 

About Tom Harley

Amateur ecologist and horticulturalist and CEO of Kimberley Environmental Horticulture Inc. (Tom Harley)
This entry was posted in comedy, weather and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s