Forecasting gets scary, monsters are coming:
First track map for MONSTER cyclone. Not looking real positive for Vanuatu. Let’s hope future maps trend a little east.
10:30 am Sunday (Fiji): The Fiji Meteorological Service is now tracking the “monster in the making” (also know as Invest 93P and 11F). The system is currently d…
It’s monsters all the way. The next week, we will see how they do.
Saturday evening (Australia, Fiji): The global computer models are slowly coming into better agreement, but there are still important differences. Shown here are the model’s predictions for 5 days from now—and here’s what they say about each of the three threats we’re tracking:
MONSTER CYCLONE: The GFS shows it developing quickly and predicts it will directly impact Vanuatu as a large, intense cyclone within 5 days. The Euro shows much slower development, and has the cyclone …
Hi, folks! We want to reaffirm the importance of reading the descriptive text that comes with the images we post, because that text describes what you’re looking at. As we’ve said many times, we won’t censor our discussions because some folks might misunderstand what they’re looking at and freak out. That having been said… To help address this concern, forthcoming model images will be more explicitly marked as such, with a stamp embedded into the actual image. This way, even when folks share the images out of context, viewers will understand it’s not a current weather map. Thanks for the feedback and suggestions about this– we appreciate it. smile emoticon
Oh, that’s OK then, monster it shall be!
Saturday morning (Australia, Fiji): Busy days ahead for the tropical S Hemisphere. This is what the latest (12Z) run of the “Euro” (ECMWF) predicts the weather map will look like one week (168 hr) from now. From right to left we have: 1) the “monster cyclone” passing between Vanuatu and Fiji; 2) the “baby cyclone” hovering near Queensland; 3) an Indian Ocean “sneaky cyclone” (named by Oz Cyclone Chasers grin emoticon ) threatening Western Australia. (There’s also a tropical storm in the Mozambique Channel, but we can’t even get into that right now.) ***Remember, this is just a computer model’s prediction of the future– it is not a current weather map.
Friday evening (QLD, Australia): The computer models are predicting two *separate* cyclones may develop, and that’s created confusion. The models predict 1) a huge “monster cyclone” way out in the S Pacific (near the island nations) and 2) a “baby cyclone” in the Coral Sea (near Queensland). To avoid confusion, this page and Oz Cyclone Chasers will refer to these systems as “monster cyclone” and “baby cyclone” until they’re named by official agencies. Now that we’ve straighte…
Friday afternoon (New Caledonia): No, this is not a hypnotist’s trick– it’s how the GFS depicts Invest 93P about one week from now– as a nuclear-grade cyclone in the S Pacific. (The isobars are so closely packed it makes us dizzy looking at it.) Given that both the GFS and the Euro are being *extremely* aggressive with this system, we have some confidence that a powerful cyclone is brewing. Our friends across the S-Pacific island nations– especially New Caledonia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu, and Fiji– are advised to watch this situation closely. And there could be later impacts in New Zealand. Interesting days ahead. (Imagery from Tropical Tidbits.)
And because we know y’all like sexy pictures, here’s some Grade-A computer-model porn– for chaserdudes and authentic nerds ONLY (all others, divert your eyes wink emoticon ): the 12Z Euro’s depiction of an incredibly large, intense cyclone in the open S Pacific, between Fiji and New Zealand, at Day 10. Now that’s a cyclone.