it’s rainfall that really matters …

Dr Jennifer Marohasy et al, released their new paper at the 9th International Conference on Climate Change this week: The Need for a New Paradigm, Including for Rainfall Forecasting

The following paper was delivered by Jennifer Marohasy at the Ninth International Conference on Climate Change in Las Vegas on Wednesday 9th July 2013 in Panel 13. SCIENTIFIC disciplines are always underpinned by theories that collectively define the dominant paradigm. In the case of modern climate science that paradigm is anthropogenic global warming (AGW). It […]
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The north of Western Australia has seen a lot of good rainfall seasons in the last couple of decades. The Murray Darling Basin, too has defied Flannery’s never ending drought, broken in 2007. The SWest of Western Australia has had record crops, and it’s looking good for this year too. The warming since the ’70s has been quite beneficial to Australia’s growing population and economy. All good, unless Dr Evans and Joanne Nova’s and a few other new papers released at that Conference that show a cooling period, are wrong.

More of that Marohasy paper, but read the whole thing:

[…]This is essentially what the ANN that John Abbot and I built to forecast rainfall for 17 locations across Queensland can do. In a paper by us published two year ago by the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ journal Advances in Atmospheric Science (Volume 29) we detail the model and demonstrate how much more skilful medium-term monthly forecasts from this model are, relative to forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s best GCM. In a more recent publication in the journal Atmospheric Research (Volume 138) we show how forecasts for Queensland are improved with inclusion of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation. In a conference paper presented a year ago in Southampton (River Basin Management VII, WIT Press) we show the potential of ANN to forecast extreme rainfall, specifically the devastating flooding that submerged Queensland’s capital Brisbane, in January 2011. […]

(Update, The BoM record doesn’t copy data …)

Now, that’s a forecast worth knowing! More rain like this from yesterday please:

Map of 24 hour rainfalls

About Tom Harley

Amateur ecologist and horticulturalist and CEO of Kimberley Environmental Horticulture Inc. (Tom Harley)
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