I have been reading all the posts on Dr David Evan’s new climate model showing all his work in developing the theory that Co2 is only a minor role in affecting global temperature. He is now into Part VII of many posts, and into the real nitty-gritty of the maths involved:
All models are wrong, some are useful. That’s how all modelers speak (except perhaps some climate scientists).
It’s been fascinating reading all the introductory posts, which can be seen on Jonova’s blog, with the input of thousands of comments that discuss the science. Dr Evan’s and Ms Nova have been working on this for the past 18 months after realizing that nearly all existing climate models have been shown to be wrong.
This research has huge implications if proved to be right, and unlike all other climate models, this theory will be falsifiable in a few years, as all scientific theories must be. Without the ability to falsify theories, the current climate change theories are really nonsense.
Dr Evans concludes this post with the following statement:
[…] Regular readers of this blog are well aware that the CO2 solution has a lot of problems. Soon we will be turning to the second part of this series, where we will look at reasons for believing that the solar model is dominant and the CO2 solution is only a small part of the overall solution.
In the next post on this topic, we will use the notch-delay solar model for forecasting. This is where it gets interesting.
Notch-delay solar project home page, including links to all the articles on this blog, with summaries.
* Our climate model is in a spreadsheet that we will be releasing shortly. We chose to do all the work for this project, right from the beginning, in a single Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for pc. It’s not the fanciest or the fastest, but an Excel spreadsheet is the most ubiquitous and one of the friendlier programming environments. It runs on most computers (any pc with Excel 2007 or later, maybe on Macs with Excel 2011 or later), can hold all the data, makes nice graphs, and all in a single file. The models use VBA code, a form of the basic programming language that is part of Microsoft Office. The spreadsheet is professionally presented, and you press buttons on the sheets to make models run and so on. You can inspect and run or step through the code; it will be all totally open. Thank you for your patience, but giving away the spreadsheet early would preempt the blog posts and disrupt a focused discussion.
From the first of the posts, the introduction, written by Joanne Nova:
Behind the scenes a major advance has been quietly churning. It is something I have barely even hinted at. (Oh how I wanted to!)You may have noticed my other half Dr David Evans has been quiet — it’s not because he’s moved out of the climate debate, instead a strange combination of factors has pulled him full time into climate research. Things have been very busy here. He’s discovered something extraordinary, and like all real science, it’s been a roller-coaster where the theory appeared to collapse, and we nearly gave up, but then a new insight would turn out to be more valuable than the version that went before. Other times it all seemed so obvious in hindsight we wondered why no one had done this before. But the answer is that there is a very unusual combination of factors at work — how many people have Ivy League experience in Fourier maths, and electrical circuits and have worked as a professional modeler, software developer, and have an interest in the finer details and theory of the climate debate? Who of the people with this background would also be prepared to spend months working unpaid to investigate a non-CO2 climate theory?
Dr David Evans is an electrical engineer and mathematician, who earned six university degrees over ten years, including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering (digital signal processing): PhD. (E.E), M.S. (E.E.), M.S. (Stats) [at Stanford], B.E. (Hons, University Medal), M.A. (Applied Math), B.Sc.[University of Sydney]. His specialty is in Fourier analysis and signal processing. He trained with Professor Ronald Bracewell late of Stanford University.
David has worked in the climate industry, consulting full-time for the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005, and part-time for the Department of Climate Change from 2008 to 2010. He was the lead modeler analyzing the carbon in Australia’s biosphere for Kyoto accounting purposes, and developed the world-leading carbon accounting model FullCAM that Australia uses in the land use change and forestry sector.
For the last 18 months David pursued an idea, and developed something the climate debate has needed, but failed to do achieve after 30 years, despite billions of dollars in funding. He’s taken sophisticated silicon-chip maths and applied it to the climate system — analyzing the system as a black box to discover the filters and parts. He has built a working O-D model with 15,000 lines of code. In order to develop the model he had to produce a more advanced method of Fourier analysis (which on its own is an achievement and will be useful in many other fields). We’ll be releasing the results of this independent work over the next week amongst other posts. Make no mistake, this is not like anything I have seen or read about. It fits, like all good science does, into a coherent theory that matches the data and connects many other papers. The jigsaw is coming together. […]