the IPCC’s continuing fail on climate models … and credibility

The latest put-down of the IPCC spells it’s coming demise, due to their failure to debate science, instead of which, they pushed one-sided propaganda, demolishing their credibility. Now the truth does hurt:

McIntyre demolishes IPCC credibility with one post

In a must-read post today, Steve McIntyre demolishes the credibility of the IPCC as a scientific organization, demonstrating why the IPCC will be unable to explain the ‘pause’ due to their willful obstruction of the science contrary to their political narrative. 


McIntyre also demonstrates why the currently-favored excuse for the ‘pause’ of “the oceans ate my global warming” is unsupportable. […]

Past the point of no return, the climate alarm of the IPCC is now obsolete, with time running out to find a fix. Time to disband it.

[…] Conclusion No credence should be given to IPCC’s last-minute attribution of the discrepancy to “natural variability”. IPCC’s ad hoc analysis purporting to support this claim does not stand up to the light of day.

Gavin Schmidt excused IPCC’s failure to squarely address the discrepancy between models and observations saying that it was “just ridiculous” that IPCC be “up to date”:

The idea that IPCC needs to be up to date on what was written last week is just ridiculous.”

But the problem not arise “last week”. While the issue has only recently become acute, it has become acute because of accumulating failure during the AR5 assessment process, including errors and misrepresentations by IPCC in the assessments sent out for external review; the almost total failure of the academic climate community to address the discrepancy; gatekeeping by fellow-traveling journal editors that suppressed criticism of the defects in the limited academic literature on the topic.

Whatever the ultimate scientific explanation for the pause and its implications for the apparent discrepancy between models and observations, policy-makers must be feeling very letdown by the failure of IPCC and its contributing academic community to adequately address an issue that is critical to them and to the public.

That academics (e.g. Fyfe et al here; von Storch here) have finally begun to touch on the problem, but only after the IPCC deadline must surely add to their frustration. Von Storch neatly summarized the problem and calmly (as he does well) set it out as an important topic of ongoing research, but any investor in the climate research process must surely wonder why this wasn’t brought up six years ago in the scoping of the AR5 report.

One cannot help but wonder whether WG1 Chair Thomas Stocker might not have served the policy community better by spending more time ensuring that the discrepancy between models and observations was properly addressed in the IPCC draft reports, perhaps even highlighting research problems while there was time in the process, than figuring out how IPCC could evade FOI requests.

Dr Spencer: A Turning Point for the IPCC…and Humanity?


1152 x 576 · 92 kB · jpeg·Evidence for Natural Climate Cycles in the IPCC Climate Models’ 20th …

About Tom Harley

Amateur ecologist and horticulturalist and CEO of Kimberley Environmental Horticulture Inc. (Tom Harley)
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