Sprung, Climategate 3.0 finds out that ‘paleo or dendro climate’ is not science but nonsense:
“The Team” members at UEA were warned that their tree ring interpretations were unsound
We now have what appears to be the first fruit of the ClimateGate 3 release of Warmist emails. Below is an email to Briffa and Jones from Don Keiller, a tree ring expert – unlike anybody in The Team. Briffa did reply to Keiller but was so slippery that he enraged Keiller. Subsequent emails to the one below are at the link
From: Keiller, Donald
Sent: 02 October 2009 10:34
To: ‘ email@example.com’
Cc: ‘ firstname.lastname@example.org’ Subject: Yamal and paleoclimatology
Dear Professor Briffa, my apologies for contacting you directly, particularly since I hear that you are unwell. However the recent release of tree ring data by CRU has prompted much discussion and indeed disquiet about the methodology and conclusions of a number of key papers by you and co-workers.
As an environmental plant physiologist, I have followed the long debate starting with Mann et al (1998) and through to Kaufman et al (2009). As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole scientific basis of dendroclimatology. In particular;
1) The appropriateness of the statistical analyses employed
2) The reliance on the same small datasets in these multiple studies
3) The concept of “teleconnection” by which certain trees respond to the “Global Temperature Field”, rather than local climate
4) The assumption that tree ring width and density are related to temperature in a linear manner.
Whilst I would not describe myself as an expert statistician, I do use inferential statistics routinely for both research and teaching and find difficulty in understanding the statistical rationale in these papers.
As a plant physiologist I can say without hesitation that points 3 and 4 do not agree with the accepted science. There is a saying that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof”. Given the scientific, political and economic importance of these papers, further detailed explanation is urgently required.
Yours sincerely, Dr. Don Keiller.
UPDATE, plotters caught: